Asteroid 99942 Apophis (2004 MN4) - yr 2029 will be visible to the unaided eye.

Ron Wells sent me a note about Apophis (see below) which points out that there are asteroids of INTERIST.

Whether I will be around in 2029 to look up remains to be seen, but the kids and grandkids will be. It would be nice if we could learn to get a HANDLE on these asteroids and turn them into a resource rather than a threat.

The one you don't know about could possibly level more than the World Trade Center. Wouldn't it be nice if the folks on spaceship Earth would work together rather than raising a fuss in their cubical?

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http://echo.jpl.nasa.gov/~ostro/mn4/index.html

Radar Refinement of the Orbit of Asteroid 99942 Apophis (2004 MN4) [See image at web site. - LRK -]

The several-hundred-meter asteroid 99942 Apophis (2004 MN4) was discovered in June 2004 and lost until it was rediscovered in December 2004. Integration of the orbit calculated from the half-year-long set of optical astrometry revealed an extremely close approach to Earth on April 13, 2029. Arecibo delay-Doppler radar astrometry obtained during the last week in January 2005 showed the object to be several hundred kilometers closer than had been predicted by the optical position measurements.

This correction refined our estimate of the orbit and predicted a 2029 approach to the geocenter at a distance of:


0.000242 +/- 0.000058 AU
36200 +/- 8700 km
0.094 +/- 0.023 Earth-Moon distances
5.7 +/- 1.4 Earth radii

This is 28,000 km closer than predicted by the pre-radar (optical-only) orbit and closer than geosynchronous satellites.

The asteroid's 2029 flyby is closer than any known past or future approach by natural objects larger than about 10 meters (other than objects that have entered Earth's atmosphere).

2004 MN4 is expected to reach 3rd magnitude for observers in Europe, Africa, and western Asia, where it will be visible to the unaided eye.

Approaches as close as the 2029 event, by objects as large as 2004 MN4, are very rare, occurring on average at intervals longer than a thousand years.

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(other than objects that have entered Earth's atmosphere). Hmmmmmm.
That sort of says it all.

Repeat after me, other than objects that have entered the Earth's atmosphere.

What was it the Dinosaurs said, wow, that was the closest we have seen, I wonder when one will enter the atmosphere?

Thanks for looking up with me.
(more eyes might help - and you said reduce funding for Arecibo?!!!)
http://science.slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=06/11/06/1143242
http://ksulib.typepad.com/talking/2006/12/save_arecibo.html
http://www.naic.edu/~astro/NSFSR/NAIC_implementation.html
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,234843,00.html?sPage=fnc.science/space
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/national/1501AP_Puerto_Rico_Observatory_Cuts.html



Larry Kellogg

Web Site: http://lkellogg.vttoth.com/LarryRussellKellogg/
BlogSpot: http://kelloggserialreports.blogspot.com/
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Newsltr.: https://news.altair.com/mailman/listinfo/lunar-update
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Thanks for this info Ron. - LRK -
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> This current asteroid miss is nothing remarkable! The one to watch out for is still 2004MN4 now called Apophis! (Interesting name for it, given that Apophis is the Egyptian demon that will eat a person's heart should it not balance exactly the Ma'at feather of truthfulness, righteousness and well being on the weighing scales!). It was thought to be a high probable impactor in April, 2029. But enough critical observations have been obtained, especially by radar, to be precise with its miss distance. On April 13.9, 2029 it will fly by the Earth at an altitude of 23,566 miles! That is within the geosynchronous orbital distance! Assuming no perturbations between now and then. It is roughly a half km in diameter. Why not develop rockets to attach to it just before it gets here and brake it into Earth orbit as a second moon? It should be thoroughly studied mineralogically. It might be worth capturing from a mining point of view.

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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/99942_Apophis
99942 Apophis
>From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

(99942) Apophis (previously known by its provisional designation 2004 MN4) is a near-Earth asteroid that caused a brief period of concern in December 2004 because initial observations indicated a relatively large probability that it would strike the Earth in 2029. However, additional observations provided improved predictions that eliminated the possibility of an impact on Earth or the Moon in 2029. However there remained a possibility that during the 2029 close encounter with Earth, Apophis would pass through a "gravitational keyhole", a precise region in space no more than about 400 meters across, that would set up a future impact on April 13, 2036. This possibility kept the asteroid at Level 1 on the Torino impact hazard scale until August 2006.

Additional observations of the trajectory of Apophis revealed the "keyhole" would likely be missed and on August 5, 2006, Apophis was lowered to a Level 0 Torino impact hazard scale. As of October 19, 2006 the impact probability for April 13, 2036 is estimated at 1 in 45,000. An additional impact date in 2037 has been identified, however the impact probability for that encounter is 1 in 12.3 million.

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http://www.astronomy.com/asy/default.aspx?c=a&id=3434
Asteroid Apophis set for a makeover
Astronomers name the asteroid that will sweep past Earth in 2029 and suggest how Earth's gravity may alter the space rock.
Bill Cooke

August 18, 2005
Last month was significant for the asteroid formerly known as 2004 MN4. On July 19, it lost its provisional designation and acquired its permanent number and name. The number, 99942, is the largest yet assigned to an asteroid. The name, which will delight Egyptologists and science-fiction fans alike, is Apophis.

Between July 9 and 11, astronomers Dave Tholen, Fabrizio Bernardi, and Roy Tucker took what are likely the last optical images of the asteroid before 2007. They used the 90-inch Bok Telescope at Kitt Peak National Observatory in Arizona. The same team discovered the asteroid last June.

On April 13, 2029, Apophis will pass 22,600 miles (36,350 kilometers) from Earth — so close it skirts the belt of orbiting geosynchronous satellites and will be visible to the unaided eye as a moving, magnitude 3.3, starlike point. Astronomers estimate the space rock is 1,050 feet (320 meters) across and has a striking power equivalent 850 million tons of TNT, or more than 4 times the energy released when the Indonesian volcano Krakatoa erupted in 1883.

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http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/a99942.html
99942 Apophis (2004 MN4)
Earth Impact Risk Summary

Analysis based on 2 radar delay, 5 Doppler, and
731 optical observations spanning 884.52 days
(2004-Mar-15.10789 to 2006-Aug-16.626954)

Torino Scale (maximum) 0
Palermo Scale (maximum) -2.52
Palermo Scale (cumulative) -2.52
Impact Probability (cumulative) 2.2e-05
Number of Potential Impacts 2

Vimpact 12.59 km/s
Vinfinity 5.87 km/s
H 19.7
Diameter 0.250 km
Mass 2.1e+10 kg
Energy 4.0e+02 MT
all above are mean values
weighted by impact probability

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http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/db?name=99942
Asteroid 99942 Apophis (2004 MN4)
Orbit - where now -
- LRK -

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http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9871982/
NASA sets schedule for handling asteroid threat Letter suggests probe in 2019 and deflector by 2028 ... if needed

By Alan Boyle
Science editor
MSNBC
Updated: 11:04 a.m. PT Oct 31, 2005

NASA has outlined what it could do, and in what time frame, in case a quarter-mile-wide asteroid named Apophis is on a course to slam into Earth in the year 2036. The timetable was released by the B612 Foundation, a group that is pressing NASA and other government agencies to do more to head off threats from near-Earth objects.

The plan runs like this: Eight years from now, if there's still a chance of a collision in 2036, NASA would start drawing up plans to put a probe on the space rock or in orbit around it in 2019. Measurements sent back from the probe would characterize Apophis' course to an accuracy of mere yards (meters) by the year 2020.

If those readings still could not rule out a strike in 2036, NASA would try to deflect the asteroid into a non-threatening course in the 2024-2028 time frame by firing an impactor at it — using this year's Deep Impact comet-blasting probe as a model. Experts would start planning for the "Son of Deep Impact" mission even before they knew whether or not it was needed.

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http://www.b612foundation.org/press/press.html

News by and about B612

News by B612

14. White papers and presentations submitted by B612 members at the NASA NEO Workshop held in Vail, Colorado, 26-28 June, 2006. This workshop was organized by NASA in response to the congressional requirement that it be provided an initial report on its progress in implementation of the George E. Brown Jr. Near-Earth Object Survey (see Subtitle C, Section 321, (d)(4)).

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1. Asteroid Apophis and the B612 exchange with NASA

* NASA Ames, 7/22/2005
http://impact.arc.nasa.gov/news_detail.cfm?ID=161
* Christian Science Monitor, 7/26/2005 http://www.csmonitor.com/2005/0726/p01s04-stss.html
* Time Online, 8/13/2005
http://www.time.com/time/columnist/jaroff/article/0,9565,1093624,00.html
* SpaceRef.Com, 10/28/2005
http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewpr.html?pid=18138
* Astromart, 10/29/2005
http://www.astromart.com/news/default.asp
* NASA Ames, 10/31/2005
http://impact.arc.nasa.gov/news_detail.cfm?ID=165
* Space Daily, 10/31/2005
http://www.spacedaily.com/news/asteroid-05v.html
* MSNBC, 10/31/2005
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9871982/
* The Register (UK), 10/31/2005
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2005/10/31/nasa_has_a_plan/
* New Scientist - Space, 11/1/2005
http://space.newscientist.com/channel/solar-system/dn8245-nasa-decline-to-deflect-asteroid--for-now.html
* MSNBC, 11/1/2005
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9890268
* San Gabriel Valley Tribune, 11/2005
[no longer available - LRK -]
* CNN.Com, 11/7/2005
[page not found - LRK -]

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WHAT THE MIND CAN CONCEIVE, AND BELIEVE, IT WILL ACHIEVE - LRK

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